Peter
Schwartzstein

The more the world warms, the more unstable many regions are becoming. Large parts of the planet are already suffering the consequences. But while there has been some focus on the effects on the poorest and most ecologically exposed, the vulnerabilities of Europe and other richer regions have been largely overlooked. As climate stresses and their fallout intensify »at home«, it’s high time to shine the spotlight inwards on a set of challenges that may ultimately affect most of the global »wealthy«, too. This is a distant problem no longer.

In some ways, Europe might seem an unlikely candidate for climate-related instability. It does not have exclusionary political systems, and nor is a large part of its population
engaged in agriculture, to mention two of the features scholars have identified as most likely to fuel such conflict globally. Nor, for all its shortcomings, does the continent
exhibit the particularly poor governance that is principally responsible for causing climate shocks to manifest in violence elsewhere. Indeed, none of the troubles described in
this report are wholly or even mainly due to climate change. They are all messy mixtures of climate and »classic« destabilisers, such as inequality.

But the closer one looks, the less surprising a backdrop Europe becomes for this kind of insecurity. It is densely populated, which means more competition for less predictably available resources. It has more nation states clustered in a small area than anywhere else on Earth, which means that problems regularly require consultation across a uniquely high number of jurisdictions. After millennia of intensive settlement, much of Europe’s natural landscape has been so manipulated that it’s poorly placed to cope with »new« conditions. Urban areas, built for more reliably hospitable climes, lack the amenities needed to shield residents effectively from fiercer heat.

(Read more on the FES website)